Heading into summer 2026, the typical US metro rent sits at $1,432 (median, as of April 2026), with 542 of 587 tracked metros showing year-over-year growth of +3.7% ▲ on average. That's the rear-view — this post is about what comes next.

What our models predict

Across 720 metros, our 6-month forecasts are broadly higher at +1.8% ▲ on average — 693 metros forecast to rise ▲ and 27 expected to cool ▼. But the story varies dramatically by metro. The same national headline hides Sun Belt markets we expect to keep heating, coastal metros stabilizing after years of moves, and a tail of overbuilt markets where new supply is poised to push rents down further.

Top 10 metros forecast to rise most (next 6 months)

These metros sit at the top of our 6-month forecast leaderboard. Each row shows today’s rent, our model’s projection six months out, and the percentage change implied.

Metro	Today	6 months out	Change
Kirksville, MO	$779	$789	+1.4% ▲
Decatur, IL	$1,018	$1,032	+1.4% ▲
Wheeling, WV	$942	$954	+1.4% ▲
Fergus Falls, MN	$989	$1,002	+1.3% ▲
Gloversville, NY	$1,064	$1,078	+1.3% ▲
Pine Bluff, AR	$817	$827	+1.3% ▲
Kingsville, TX	$1,316	$1,332	+1.3% ▲
Fremont, NE	$1,194	$1,209	+1.3% ▲
Bartlesville, OK	$1,159	$1,173	+1.2% ▲
Jasper, AL	$1,109	$1,123	+1.2% ▲

Top 10 metros forecast to cool (next 6 months)

The other end of the leaderboard — markets where our model expects the most softening over the next two quarters.

Metro	Today	6 months out	Change
Safford, AZ	$1,883	$1,863	−1.1% ▼
Kapaa, HI	$4,503	$4,456	−1.0% ▼
Breckenridge, CO	$3,248	$3,218	−0.9% ▼
Montrose, CO	$1,906	$1,891	−0.8% ▼
Sandusky, OH	$1,482	$1,472	−0.7% ▼
Houghton, MI	$1,666	$1,655	−0.7% ▼
Meridian, MS	$1,359	$1,351	−0.6% ▼
Muskogee, OK	$1,269	$1,261	−0.6% ▼
Bennington, VT	$1,527	$1,518	−0.6% ▼
Sevierville, TN	$1,781	$1,770	−0.6% ▼

What’s driving the forecasts

Three signals show up repeatedly in the metros at the top of our forecast: employment growth, in-migration, and a slowdown in new multifamily completions. Sun Belt and Mountain West metros with expanding payrolls and continued net in-migration from coastal states are seeing rental demand outpace what 2023–2024 permit waves can absorb — and several of them are already showing early signs of the next leg up in the trailing-12-month data.

Mortgage rates above 6% are still keeping a wedge of would-be buyers in the rental market, especially in coastal metros where the buy-vs-rent math is most punitive. That added demand is showing up in our forecasts for metros where for-sale inventory remains tight even as ZHVI flattens.

On the cooling side, the story is mostly supply. New multifamily completions from the 2022–2023 permit wave are landing now, and metros that pulled the most permits per capita during the pandemic boom — particularly in the South — are seeing concessions, lower asking rents, and softer projections from our proprietary ML models. A handful of these metros also face population headwinds, which compounds the supply story.

Explore the full interactive forecast for your metro at rentlens.co →

Our models achieve a 1.58% average prediction error across 720 metros. Forecasts retrain monthly as new actuals come in.