US Rent Outlook: August 2026
The typical US metro rent sits at $1,443 (median, July 2026 data), with 569 of 600 tracked metros showing year-over-year growth of +3.8% ▲ on average. That's the rear-view — this post is about what comes next.
How last month’s outlook held up
Of the 8 metros we named that we can grade this month, 6 ▲ moved in the direction we called, with an average miss of 4.5% on the level. Closest call: Rexburg, ID — we said $1,168, it printed $1,166. Biggest miss: Bardstown, KY — we said $1,181, it printed $1,044 (13.1% too high ▼).
What our models predict
Across 605 metros, our 6-month forecasts are broadly higher at +1.5% ▲ on average — 588 metros forecast to rise ▲ and 17 expected to cool ▼. Twelve months out, the national picture is +4.1% ▲. But the story varies dramatically by metro. The same national headline hides Sun Belt markets we expect to keep heating, coastal metros stabilizing after years of moves, and a tail of overbuilt markets where new supply is poised to push rents down further.
Top 10 major metros forecast to rise most next month
Among the 150 largest US metros by population, these sit at the top of our next-month leaderboard. Each row shows today’s rent, our model’s projection for August, and the change implied — and next month we print the actuals beside them.
| Metro | Today | Next month | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rochester, NY | $1,557 | $1,568 | +0.7% ▲ |
| Hartford, CT | $2,020 | $2,034 | +0.7% ▲ |
| Syracuse, NY | $1,613 | $1,624 | +0.7% ▲ |
| Buffalo, NY | $1,446 | $1,456 | +0.6% ▲ |
| Modesto, CA | $2,046 | $2,059 | +0.6% ▲ |
| Lancaster, PA | $1,558 | $1,567 | +0.6% ▲ |
| Los Angeles, CA | $2,944 | $2,962 | +0.6% ▲ |
| Albany, NY | $1,689 | $1,699 | +0.6% ▲ |
| Lansing, MI | $1,287 | $1,294 | +0.6% ▲ |
| Naples, FL | $2,620 | $2,635 | +0.6% ▲ |
Top 10 major metros forecast to lag next month
The other end of the leaderboard — the major markets where our model expects the softest month: flat to slightly lower. Among big metros a one-month dip is rare, so “lagging” usually means standing still while the leaders move.
| Metro | Today | Next month | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle, WA | $2,282 | $2,281 | −0.1% ▼ |
| Houston, TX | $1,654 | $1,654 | +0.0% ▲ |
| Atlanta, GA | $1,855 | $1,856 | +0.0% ▲ |
| Dallas, TX | $1,667 | $1,668 | +0.1% ▲ |
| Colorado Springs, CO | $1,791 | $1,792 | +0.1% ▲ |
| Detroit, MI | $1,531 | $1,532 | +0.1% ▲ |
| Charleston, SC | $2,063 | $2,064 | +0.1% ▲ |
| Cape Coral, FL | $1,864 | $1,866 | +0.1% ▲ |
| San Jose, CA | $3,782 | $3,786 | +0.1% ▲ |
| El Paso, TX | $1,534 | $1,536 | +0.1% ▲ |
What’s driving the forecasts
Three signals show up repeatedly in the metros at the top of our forecast: employment growth, in-migration, and a slowdown in new multifamily completions. Sun Belt and Mountain West metros with expanding payrolls and continued net in-migration from coastal states are seeing rental demand outpace what 2023–2024 permit waves can absorb — and several of them are already showing early signs of the next leg up in the trailing-12-month data.
Mortgage rates above 6% are still keeping a wedge of would-be buyers in the rental market, especially in coastal metros where the buy-vs-rent math is most punitive. That added demand is showing up in our forecasts for metros where for-sale inventory remains tight even as ZHVI flattens.
On the cooling side, the story is mostly supply. New multifamily completions from the 2022–2023 permit wave are landing now, and metros that pulled the most permits per capita during the pandemic boom — particularly in the South — are seeing concessions, lower asking rents, and softer projections from our proprietary ML models. A handful of these metros also face population headwinds, which compounds the supply story.
Explore the full interactive forecast for your metro at rentlens.co →
Our models run at 98.4% forecast accuracy across 605 metros. Forecasts retrain monthly as new actuals come in, and every edition is graded against the last.