Where Home Prices Are Heading: Summer 2026 Forecast
Heading into summer 2026, the typical US metro home value sits at $277,724 (median, as of March 2026), with 513 of 703 tracked metros showing year-over-year appreciation of +1.8% ▲ on average. That’s the rear-view — this post is about what comes next.
What our models predict
Across 703 metros, our 6-month home-value forecasts are broadly lower at −0.1% ▼ on average — 335 metros forecast to appreciate ▲ and 368 expected to decline ▼. But the story varies dramatically by metro. The national headline hides metros where buyers are quietly re-entering the market and others where price cuts are still working through inventory.
Top 10 metros forecast to appreciate most (next 6 months)
These metros sit at the top of our 6-month appreciation leaderboard. Each row shows today’s typical home value, our model’s projection six months out, and the percentage change implied.
| Metro | Today | 6 months out | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breckenridge, CO | $987,683 | $1,023,126 | +3.6% ▲ |
| Salinas, CA | $849,199 | $879,513 | +3.6% ▲ |
| New York, NY | $715,584 | $740,876 | +3.5% ▲ |
| Los Angeles, CA | $967,836 | $997,267 | +3.0% ▲ |
| San Francisco, CA | $1,143,246 | $1,175,283 | +2.8% ▲ |
| Sandpoint, ID | $648,371 | $664,378 | +2.5% ▲ |
| Urban Honolulu, HI | $854,778 | $875,042 | +2.4% ▲ |
| Bozeman, MT | $697,180 | $712,228 | +2.2% ▲ |
| Napa, CA | $887,171 | $905,100 | +2.0% ▲ |
| Glenwood Springs, CO | $980,700 | $996,378 | +1.6% ▲ |
Top 10 metros forecast to decline most (next 6 months)
The other end of the leaderboard — markets where our model expects the most price softening between now and Q4.
| Metro | Today | 6 months out | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose, CA | $1,636,393 | $1,482,190 | −9.4% ▼ |
| Edwards, CO | $1,311,613 | $1,207,924 | −7.9% ▼ |
| Ocean City, NJ | $785,673 | $747,084 | −4.9% ▼ |
| Santa Cruz, CA | $1,149,536 | $1,101,135 | −4.2% ▼ |
| Heber, UT | $1,146,844 | $1,104,294 | −3.7% ▼ |
| Steamboat Springs, CO | $1,124,089 | $1,083,460 | −3.6% ▼ |
| Jackson, WY | $1,410,017 | $1,361,080 | −3.5% ▼ |
| Seattle, WA | $751,552 | $731,372 | −2.7% ▼ |
| Barnstable Town, MA | $750,048 | $731,106 | −2.5% ▼ |
| Durango, CO | $673,407 | $657,683 | −2.3% ▼ |
What’s driving the forecasts
Mortgage rates remain the dominant signal. With 30-year rates holding above 6%, our model continues to favor metros where the rent-to-value ratio is wide — markets where rental income has caught up to flat or only mildly appreciating prices. Those are the cities where investor demand, combined with limited new for-sale supply, supports modest continued appreciation.
Migration matters too. Metros that have absorbed net in-migration for two consecutive years are turning up across our forecast leaderboard, particularly when paired with employment growth exceeding the national pace. Several Mountain West and Carolinas markets fit that profile.
On the cooling side, the story is mostly oversupply combined with affordability stretch. Sun Belt metros that pulled the most single-family permits during 2021–2022 are still working through new inventory, and our proprietary ML models are projecting modest price declines as that supply lands. A handful of these markets also face rising insurance costs, which our models pick up indirectly through disaster-frequency features.
Explore the full interactive forecast for your metro at rentlens.co →
Our home-value models achieve a 1.47% average prediction error across 703 metros. Forecasts retrain monthly as new actuals come in.